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Varazdin vs Lok. Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:45

Varazdin

PPG 1.81 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lok. Zagreb

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.1%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-112.3%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.3%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 50.5% 1.98 -5.8%

Draw 26.7% 29.4% 3.40 -5.5%

Away win 25.6% 29.4% 3.40 -7.8%

Over 2.5 46.5% 55.6% 1.80 -16.3%

Over 3.5 24.9% 33.9% 2.95 -15.9%

BTTS 52.3% 60.6% 1.65 -13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varazdin1.5

Lok. Zagreb1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VARAZDIN · PPG 1.81

LOK. ZAGREB · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=47.6%

Win probability 1X2

Varazdin (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -5.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.5%

Lok. Zagreb (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varazdin face Lok. Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varazdin a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Lok. Zagreb 26%, so Varazdin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Varazdin and 1.0 for Lok. Zagreb (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varazdin are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.81 for Lok. Zagreb. This match finished 1-1.

Varazdin vs Lok. Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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