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Sanluqueno vs Algeciras Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:30

Sanluqueno

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Algeciras

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-115.2%0-28.5%0-33.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.9%1-113.3%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.2%2-15.9%2-23.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.5%3-11.7%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 23.8% 4.20 +28.5%

Draw 31.1% 29.4% 3.40 +5.7%

Away win 38.2% 57.1% 1.75 -33.1%

Over 2.5 40.2% 46.5% 2.15 -13.6%

Over 3.5 14.3% 25.3% 3.95 -26.1%

BTTS 48.2% 51.3% 1.95 -6.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.2%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1✓ 15.2%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sanluqueno0.9

Algeciras1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SANLUQUENO · PPG 1.00

ALGECIRAS · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Sanluqueno (H) 30.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +28.5%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +5.7%

Algeciras (A) 38.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sanluqueno face Algeciras in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sanluqueno a 31% chance, the draw 31% and Algeciras 38%, so Algeciras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sanluqueno and 1.1 for Algeciras (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sanluqueno are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.94 for Algeciras. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Sanluqueno vs Algeciras Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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