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Guadalajara vs Arenteiro Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:30

Guadalajara

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Arenteiro

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=44.3%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-19.9%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.2%1-113.0%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.5%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% — — —

Draw 29.4% — — —

Away win 26.3% — — —

Over 2.5 45.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.4% — — —

BTTS 51.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.0%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 2–0✓ 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guadalajara1.3

Arenteiro0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GUADALAJARA · PPG 1.29

ARENTEIRO · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=44.3%

Win probability 1X2

Guadalajara (H) 44.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Arenteiro (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalajara face Arenteiro in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalajara a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Arenteiro 26%, so Guadalajara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Guadalajara and 0.9 for Arenteiro (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalajara are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.47 for Arenteiro. This match finished 2-0.

Guadalajara vs Arenteiro Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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