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Recoleta vs CD Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:30

Recoleta

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

CD Santa Cruz

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+15.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.3%0-22.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.2%1-17.7%1-25.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.0%2-18.9%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.6%3-16.9%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-16.8%4+-25.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 43.5% 2.30 +15.5%

Draw 24.3% 31.3% 3.20 -13.3%

Away win 25.5% 34.5% 2.90 -15.6%

Over 2.5 61.7% 46.5% 2.15 +32.6%

Over 3.5 52.7% 25.3% 3.95 +108.2%

BTTS 62.5% 54.1% 1.85 +15.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recoleta2.3

CD Santa Cruz1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RECOLETA · PPG 1.40

CD SANTA CRUZ · PPG 0.20

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Recoleta (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +15.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.3%

CD Santa Cruz (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Recoleta face CD Santa Cruz in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recoleta a 50% chance, the draw 24% and CD Santa Cruz 26%, so Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Recoleta and 1.5 for CD Santa Cruz (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recoleta are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.20 for CD Santa Cruz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +108.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Recoleta vs CD Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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