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Valladolid vs Real Zaragoza Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 39 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:30

Valladolid

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Real Zaragoza

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-111.3%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.9%1-113.1%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.3%2-17.6%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.6%3-13.0%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 48.1% 2.08 -8.3%

Draw 29.7% 30.3% 3.30 -1.2%

Away win 26.2% 28.6% 3.50 -5.0%

Over 2.5 37.2% 50.0% 2.00 -25.6%

Over 3.5 14.1% 28.6% 3.50 -30.4%

BTTS 48.2% 57.1% 1.75 -15.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 15.9%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0✓ 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valladolid1.2

Real Zaragoza0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VALLADOLID · PPG 1.37

REAL ZARAGOZA · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.37) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Valladolid (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -8.3%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.2%

Real Zaragoza (A) 26.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valladolid face Real Zaragoza in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valladolid a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Real Zaragoza 26%, so Valladolid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Valladolid and 0.8 for Real Zaragoza (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valladolid are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 0.89 for Real Zaragoza. This match finished 2-0.

Valladolid vs Real Zaragoza Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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