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Al Najma vs Al Hazm Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:15

Al Najma

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Hazm

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.0%0-27.1%0-33.7%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.3%1-111.6%1-29.1%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.7%2-17.4%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.0%3-13.2%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.9% 31.3% 3.20 +8.5%

Draw 25.3% 27.8% 3.60 -5.3%

Away win 40.7% 47.6% 2.10 -14.5%

Over 2.5 57.2% 57.1% 1.75 +0.1%

Over 3.5 32.3% 34.7% 2.88 -7.0%

BTTS 58.8% 62.5% 1.60 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.8%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Najma1.3

Al Hazm1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NAJMA · PPG 0.60

AL HAZM · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

61%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.60) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Al Najma (H) 33.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +8.5%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.3%

Al Hazm (A) 40.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Najma face Al Hazm in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Najma a 34% chance, the draw 25% and Al Hazm 41%, so Al Hazm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Najma and 1.6 for Al Hazm (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Najma are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Al Hazm. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Al Najma vs Al Hazm Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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