Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Middelfart vs Hobro

Middelfart vs Hobro Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Middelfart

PPG 0.58 · HOME

0 – 6

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hobro

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-111.3%0-28.0%0-33.8%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.9%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.9%2-17.0%2-24.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.8%3-12.6%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 25.0% 4.00 +18.4%

Draw 26.5% 29.0% 3.45 -8.6%

Away win 43.9% 54.9% 1.82 -20.1%

Over 2.5 46.3% 54.1% 1.85 -14.3%

Over 3.5 24.8% 32.3% 3.10 -23.1%

BTTS 50.8% 58.8% 1.70 -13.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-6

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.8%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 11.3%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Middelfart1.1

Hobro1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDDELFART · PPG 0.58

HOBRO · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.58)

Win probability 1X2

Middelfart (H) 29.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +18.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.6%

Hobro (A) 43.9%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Middelfart face Hobro in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Middelfart a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Hobro 44%, so Hobro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Middelfart and 1.4 for Hobro (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Middelfart are averaging 0.58 points per game versus 1.33 for Hobro. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 0-6.

Middelfart vs Hobro Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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