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Lazio vs Inter Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:00

Lazio

PPG 1.59 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Inter Milan

PPG 2.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-113.1%0-210.0%0-35.1%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.7%2-15.6%2-24.3%2-32.2%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.1%3-11.7%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.2% 25.0% 4.00 +0.5%

Draw 28.2% 27.8% 3.60 +0.9%

Away win 46.6% 54.6% 1.83 -14.7%

Over 2.5 46.5% 55.6% 1.80 -16.3%

Over 3.5 23.4% 33.9% 2.95 -18.6%

BTTS 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.3%

A 47% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 0–2 10.0%

#5 1–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lazio0.9

Inter Milan1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LAZIO · PPG 1.59

INTER MILAN · PPG 2.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.24) vs Home GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Lazio (H) 25.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.5%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.9%

Inter Milan (A) 46.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lazio face Inter Milan in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lazio a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Inter Milan 47%, so Inter Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lazio and 1.5 for Inter Milan (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lazio are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 2.24 for Inter Milan. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 0-3.

Lazio vs Inter Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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