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Al Khaleej vs Al Ittifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:55

Al Khaleej

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Ittifaq

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.8%0-23.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.8%1-19.5%1-26.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.4%3-16.1%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.7%4+-23.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 44.4% 2.25 +10.9%

Draw 25.6% 27.8% 3.60 -4.7%

Away win 25.1% 34.5% 2.90 -16.3%

Over 2.5 60.8% 63.7% 1.57 -4.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 41.7% 2.40 +4.4%

BTTS 58.8% 69.0% 1.45 -14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 6.7%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Khaleej2.0

Al Ittifaq1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHALEEJ · PPG 1.33

AL ITTIFAQ · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Al Khaleej (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +10.9%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.7%

Al Ittifaq (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Khaleej face Al Ittifaq in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Khaleej a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Al Ittifaq 25%, so Al Khaleej are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al Khaleej and 1.4 for Al Ittifaq (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Khaleej are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.27 for Al Ittifaq. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.9%. This match finished 0-5.

Al Khaleej vs Al Ittifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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