Today / Slovenia - 1. SNL / Koper vs Aluminij

Koper vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:30

Koper

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Aluminij

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.6%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.1%1-16.9%1-23.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.0%2-19.1%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-18.0%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-19.8%4+-25.6%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 79.4% 1.26 -26.9%

Draw 20.7% 19.6% 5.10 +3.3%

Away win 21.3% 10.0% 10.00 +67.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 70.4% 1.42 -12.4%

Over 3.5 51.9% 48.8% 2.05 +6.4%

BTTS 58.8% 58.8% 1.70 -0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 60.8%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.0%

#3 1–1 6.9%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Koper2.6

Aluminij1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 51.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KOPER · PPG 2.38

ALUMINIJ · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

68%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

Koper (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.26 · IMPLIED 79.4% EV -26.9%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +3.3%

Aluminij (A) 21.3%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +67.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Koper face Aluminij in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Koper a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Aluminij 21%, so Koper are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Koper and 1.1 for Aluminij (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Koper are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.13 for Aluminij. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +67.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Koper vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions