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Koper vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:30

Koper

PPG 2.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Aluminij

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.6%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.1%1-16.9%1-23.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.0%2-19.1%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-18.0%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-19.8%4+-25.6%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 79.4% 1.26 -26.9%

Draw 20.7% 19.6% 5.10 +3.3%

Away win 21.3% 10.0% 10.00 +67.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 70.4% 1.42 -12.4%

Over 3.5 51.9% 48.8% 2.05 +6.4%

BTTS 58.8% 58.8% 1.70 -0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.0%

#3 1–1 6.9%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Koper2.6

Aluminij1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 51.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KOPER · PPG 2.38

ALUMINIJ · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

Koper (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.26 · IMPLIED 79.4% EV -26.9%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +3.3%

Aluminij (A) 21.3%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +67.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Koper face Aluminij in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Koper a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Aluminij 21%, so Koper are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Koper and 1.1 for Aluminij (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Koper are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.13 for Aluminij. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +67.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Koper vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions