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Troyes vs Boulogne Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Troyes

PPG 2.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Boulogne

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home 68% chance

Model probability 70.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.3%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-18.9%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-16.4%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-15.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.4% 66.7% 1.50 +5.6%

Draw 18.9% 24.4% 4.10 -22.5%

Away win 10.7% 16.0% 6.25 -33.1%

Over 2.5 51.8% 54.6% 1.83 -5.2%

Over 3.5 29.6% 32.3% 3.10 -8.2%

BTTS 42.6% 54.1% 1.85 -21.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.6%

H 70% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.9%

#2 1–0✓ 13.3%

#3 3–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 1–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Troyes2.1

Boulogne0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TROYES · PPG 2.47

BOULOGNE · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.47), Away AVERAGE (1.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Troyes (H) 70.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +5.6%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -22.5%

Boulogne (A) 10.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Troyes face Boulogne in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Troyes a 70% chance, the draw 19% and Boulogne 11%, so Troyes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Troyes and 0.7 for Boulogne (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Troyes are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 1.40 for Boulogne. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Troyes vs Boulogne Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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