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Sumqayit vs Araz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:30

Sumqayit

PPG 1.21 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Araz

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+21.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.4%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.8%1-111.0%1-26.9%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.3%3-15.4%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 44.4% 2.25 +7.8%

Draw 26.3% 33.3% 3.00 -12.7%

Away win 25.8% 32.3% 3.10 -12.0%

Over 2.5 59.3% 48.8% 2.05 +21.6%

Over 3.5 34.6% 27.4% 3.65 +26.3%

BTTS 58.8% 56.5% 1.77 +4.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sumqayit1.7

Araz1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUMQAYIT · PPG 1.21

ARAZ · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.21), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Sumqayit (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +7.8%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.7%

Araz (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sumqayit face Araz in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sumqayit a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Araz 26%, so Sumqayit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sumqayit and 1.3 for Araz (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sumqayit are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.13 for Araz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Sumqayit vs Araz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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