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Dugopolje vs Bijelo Brdo Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:00

Dugopolje

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Bijelo Brdo

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-110.4%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.4%1-112.4%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-17.4%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-13.0%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 64.5% 1.55 -27.8%

Draw 28.5% 30.3% 3.30 -3.6%

Away win 24.9% 17.2% 5.80 +26.7%

Over 2.5 35.1% 46.5% 2.15 -24.5%

Over 3.5 12.1% 27.0% 3.70 -33.1%

BTTS 46.1% 48.8% 2.05 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.1%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–0 18.4%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dugopolje1.2

Bijelo Brdo0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DUGOPOLJE · PPG 2.40

BIJELO BRDO · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=46.6%

Win probability 1X2

Dugopolje (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -27.8%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.6%

Bijelo Brdo (A) 24.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dugopolje face Bijelo Brdo in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dugopolje a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Bijelo Brdo 25%, so Dugopolje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dugopolje and 0.7 for Bijelo Brdo (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dugopolje are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.67 for Bijelo Brdo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Dugopolje vs Bijelo Brdo Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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