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Dubrava Zagreb vs Orijent Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:00

Dubrava Zagreb

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Orijent

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-110.9%0-26.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.1%1-113.1%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.6%2-17.9%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.7%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 32.3% 3.10 +13.2%

Draw 27.9% 33.3% 3.00 -9.8%

Away win 35.6% 47.6% 2.10 -25.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 48.8% 2.05 -4.7%

Over 3.5 21.8% 29.9% 3.34 -16.3%

BTTS 52.3% 57.1% 1.75 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0✓ 11.1%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dubrava Zagreb1.2

Orijent1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DUBRAVA ZAGREB · PPG 1.53

ORIJENT · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Dubrava Zagreb (H) 36.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +13.2%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.8%

Orijent (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dubrava Zagreb face Orijent in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dubrava Zagreb a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Orijent 36%, so Dubrava Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dubrava Zagreb and 1.2 for Orijent (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dubrava Zagreb are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.07 for Orijent. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Dubrava Zagreb vs Orijent Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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