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Paradiso vs Cham Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:30

Paradiso

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cham

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.9%0-24.9%0-33.3%0-4+2.7%1 1-04.1%1-18.3%1-28.4%1-35.7%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.5%2-17.1%2-27.1%2-34.8%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.0%3-14.0%3-24.1%3-32.7%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 51.3% 1.95 -32.7%

Draw 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -6.5%

Away win 40.4% 30.8% 3.25 +31.3%

Over 2.5 61.7% 61.7% 1.62 -0.1%

Over 3.5 51.2% 40.0% 2.50 +28.0%

BTTS 63.0% 66.7% 1.50 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

A 40% / xG 1.7-2.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paradiso1.7

Cham2.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 51.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PARADISO · PPG 1.13

CHAM · PPG 1.20

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Paradiso (H) 34.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -32.7%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.5%

Cham (A) 40.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +31.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paradiso face Cham in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paradiso a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Cham 40%, so Cham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Paradiso and 2.0 for Cham (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paradiso are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.20 for Cham. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Paradiso vs Cham Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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