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Lugano B vs Grand-Saconnex Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:30

Lugano B

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Grand-Saconnex

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.7%0-24.1%0-33.0%0-4+2.8%1 1-03.2%1-17.0%1-27.7%1-35.7%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.5%2-27.2%2-35.3%2-4+4.9%3 3-01.9%3-14.1%3-24.5%3-33.3%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.9%4+-23.2%4+-32.4%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 26.0% 3.85 +35.5%

Draw 24.1% 26.3% 3.80 -5.1%

Away win 40.6% 57.8% 1.73 -29.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.0% 1.45 -10.5%

Over 3.5 58.3% 46.5% 2.15 +25.3%

BTTS 63.0% 69.4% 1.44 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.0%

A 41% / xG 1.9-2.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.0%

#2 1–2 7.7%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugano B1.9

Grand-Saconnex2.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 58.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGANO B · PPG 1.33

GRAND-SACONNEX · PPG 0.87

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Lugano B (H) 35.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +35.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.1%

Grand-Saconnex (A) 40.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugano B face Grand-Saconnex in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugano B a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Grand-Saconnex 41%, so Grand-Saconnex are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lugano B and 2.2 for Grand-Saconnex (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugano B are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.87 for Grand-Saconnex. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Lugano B vs Grand-Saconnex Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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