Today / Austria - Regionalliga - Ost / Leobendorf vs Retz

Leobendorf vs Retz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 30 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:30

Leobendorf

PPG 1.85 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Retz

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-12.8%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.8%1-17.0%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-18.7%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-17.2%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-18.1%4+-22.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 78.1% 1.28 -13.2%

Draw 22.8% 21.7% 4.60 +2.9%

Away win 9.4% 12.5% 8.00 -14.9%

Over 2.5 60.2% 69.4% 1.44 -13.3%

Over 3.5 38.3% 46.5% 2.15 -17.6%

BTTS 50.9% 57.1% 1.75 -10.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob50.9%

H 68% / xG 2.5-0.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 3–0 11.2%

#3 1–0✓ 10.8%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leobendorf2.5

Retz0.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEOBENDORF · PPG 1.85

RETZ · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.85), Away POOR (0.36) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Leobendorf (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -13.2%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +2.9%

Retz (A) 9.4%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leobendorf face Retz in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leobendorf a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Retz 9%, so Leobendorf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Leobendorf and 0.6 for Retz (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leobendorf are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 0.36 for Retz. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Leobendorf vs Retz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

More Austria - Regionalliga - Ost Predictions