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Hercules vs UD Ibiza Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:15

Hercules

PPG 2.12 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

UD Ibiza

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-113.4%0-25.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.6%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.2%2-16.5%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.1%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 34.5% 2.90 +10.2%

Draw 35.7% 37.7% 2.65 -5.4%

Away win 26.3% 37.7% 2.65 -18.2%

Over 2.5 35.1% 45.5% 2.20 -22.8%

Over 3.5 10.6% 25.3% 3.95 -34.9%

BTTS 46.8% 55.6% 1.80 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.8%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.8%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.6%

#4 0–1 13.4%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hercules1.0

UD Ibiza0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HERCULES · PPG 2.12

UD IBIZA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.12) vs P(Home)=38.0%

Win probability 1X2

Hercules (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +10.2%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -5.4%

UD Ibiza (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hercules face UD Ibiza in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hercules a 38% chance, the draw 36% and UD Ibiza 26%, so Hercules are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Hercules and 0.8 for UD Ibiza (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hercules are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.06 for UD Ibiza. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Hercules vs UD Ibiza Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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