Burgos vs Almeria Prediction & Tips

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Spain - Segunda División Regular Season - 39 Estadio Municipal de El Plantío· Burgos Saturday, May 9, 2026 14:15

Burgos PPG 1.79

0-0 HIT CS2

Almeria PPG 1.37

Home· +21.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.4%

Odds: 2.74 EV: +21.7%

Draw 28.1%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -5.2%

Away 27.5%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -18.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.5% Odds: 1.95 -9.3%

Over 3.5 24.0% Odds: 3.40 -11.0%

BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.70 -11.1%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Burgos

1.38

Almeria

1.10

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+21.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 64% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.79) > Away AVERAGE (1.37)