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Burgos vs Almeria Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 39 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:15

Burgos

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Almeria

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.2%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.5%1-112.7%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-18.8%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 36.5% 2.74 +21.7%

Draw 28.1% 30.8% 3.25 -5.2%

Away win 27.5% 40.0% 2.50 -18.8%

Over 2.5 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Over 3.5 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

BTTS 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0✓ 8.3%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burgos1.4

Almeria1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BURGOS · PPG 1.79

ALMERIA · PPG 1.37

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.79) > Away AVERAGE (1.37)

Win probability 1X2

Burgos (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV +21.7%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.2%

Almeria (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burgos face Almeria in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burgos a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Almeria 28%, so Burgos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Burgos and 1.1 for Almeria (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burgos are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.37 for Almeria. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Burgos vs Almeria Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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