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Albacete vs Leonesa Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 39 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:15

Albacete

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Leonesa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.7%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.1%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.9%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 45.5% 2.20 +8.5%

Draw 25.6% 31.7% 3.15 -11.6%

Away win 25.1% 29.9% 3.35 -9.6%

Over 2.5 47.3% 54.1% 1.85 -12.5%

Over 3.5 25.5% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1✓ 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albacete1.6

Leonesa1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBACETE · PPG 1.32

LEONESA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.32) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Albacete (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +8.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -11.6%

Leonesa (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albacete face Leonesa in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albacete a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Leonesa 25%, so Albacete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Albacete and 1.0 for Leonesa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albacete are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.00 for Leonesa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Albacete vs Leonesa Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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