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Bavois vs Lausanne B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Bavois

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lausanne B

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.9% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.5%0-21.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.3%1-14.7%1-23.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.1%2-17.3%2-25.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.3%3-17.6%3-25.5%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-113.0%4+-29.3%4+-34.5%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 60.6% 1.65 -4.3%

Draw 20.7% 22.7% 4.40 -5.3%

Away win 21.3% 27.0% 3.70 -12.7%

Over 2.5 70.9% 78.1% 1.28 -9.3%

Over 3.5 66.8% 56.5% 1.77 +18.2%

BTTS 63.0% 75.2% 1.33 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.0%

H 58% / xG 3.1-1.4 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 2–1✓ 7.3%

#3 4–1 6.0%

#4 3–2 5.5%

#5 1–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bavois3.1

Lausanne B1.4

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.9% · O3.5 PROB 66.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BAVOIS · PPG 1.80

LAUSANNE B · PPG 0.47

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

Bavois (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -4.3%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -5.3%

Lausanne B (A) 21.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bavois face Lausanne B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bavois a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Lausanne B 21%, so Bavois are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Bavois and 1.4 for Lausanne B (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bavois are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.47 for Lausanne B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Bavois vs Lausanne B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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