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Dinamo Zagreb vs Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.56 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hajduk Split

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.8%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.5%1-110.7%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.0%3-16.1%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.3%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 61.0% 1.64 -19.1%

Draw 25.6% 26.0% 3.85 -0.9%

Away win 25.1% 22.0% 4.55 +8.5%

Over 2.5 57.5% 62.5% 1.60 -8.0%

Over 3.5 32.4% 40.0% 2.50 -19.0%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Zagreb1.9

Hajduk Split1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.56

HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.56) > Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Zagreb (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -19.1%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.9%

Hajduk Split (A) 25.1%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Zagreb face Hajduk Split in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Hajduk Split 25%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.0 for Hajduk Split (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Zagreb are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.81 for Hajduk Split. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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