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Donaufeld vs Parndorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 30 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Donaufeld

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Parndorf

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.6%0-25.6%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.4%1-112.2%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.6%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.2%3-14.1%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 51.3% 1.95 -25.9%

Draw 26.2% 29.4% 3.40 -6.6%

Away win 35.7% 31.3% 3.20 +14.2%

Over 2.5 53.1% 60.6% 1.65 -12.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 36.5% 2.74 -12.7%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -47.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Donaufeld1.4

Parndorf1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DONAUFELD · PPG 1.57

PARNDORF · PPG 1.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.54)

Win probability 1X2

Donaufeld (H) 38.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -25.9%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.6%

Parndorf (A) 35.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Donaufeld face Parndorf in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Donaufeld a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Parndorf 36%, so Donaufeld are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Donaufeld and 1.3 for Parndorf (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Donaufeld are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.54 for Parndorf. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 1-4.

Donaufeld vs Parndorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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