Today / Scotland - Premiership / St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock

St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group · Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

St. Mirren

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kilmarnock

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.9%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.9%1-113.2%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-18.1%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.2%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 50.8% 1.97 -18.6%

Draw 30.4% 28.2% 3.55 +7.9%

Away win 28.3% 27.8% 3.60 +1.1%

Over 2.5 45.8% 55.6% 1.80 -17.6%

Over 3.5 18.9% 33.3% 3.00 -26.0%

BTTS 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Mirren1.2

Kilmarnock1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. MIRREN · PPG 1.18

KILMARNOCK · PPG 0.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.18) > Away POOR (0.53)

Win probability 1X2

St. Mirren (H) 41.3%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -18.6%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +7.9%

Kilmarnock (A) 28.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Mirren face Kilmarnock in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Mirren a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Kilmarnock 28%, so St. Mirren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for St. Mirren and 1.0 for Kilmarnock (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Mirren are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.53 for Kilmarnock. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 0-3.

St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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