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Falkirk vs Hibernian Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Falkirk

PPG 1.44 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hibernian

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-19.3%0-26.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.1%1-112.3%1-28.3%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-18.1%2-25.5%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.6%3-13.6%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 45.0% 2.22 -17.9%

Draw 26.9% 28.2% 3.55 -2.7%

Away win 36.2% 33.9% 2.95 +6.8%

Over 2.5 52.8% 58.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 35.7% 2.80 -12.8%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.9%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkirk1.3

Hibernian1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKIRK · PPG 1.44

HIBERNIAN · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.24)

Win probability 1X2

Falkirk (H) 37.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -17.9%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.7%

Hibernian (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkirk face Hibernian in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkirk a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Hibernian 36%, so Falkirk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Falkirk and 1.4 for Hibernian (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkirk are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.24 for Hibernian. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Falkirk vs Hibernian Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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