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Dundee FC vs Livingston Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group · Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Dundee FC

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Livingston

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.2%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.3%1-111.7%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 57.8% 1.73 -17.0%

Draw 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -1.6%

Away win 25.8% 22.2% 4.50 +9.7%

Over 2.5 53.1% 54.6% 1.83 -2.8%

Over 3.5 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -4.6%

BTTS 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundee FC1.6

Livingston1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDEE FC · PPG 1.47

LIVINGSTON · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.47) vs P(Home)=48.0%

Win probability 1X2

Dundee FC (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -17.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.6%

Livingston (A) 25.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundee FC face Livingston in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundee FC a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Livingston 26%, so Dundee FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dundee FC and 1.1 for Livingston (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundee FC are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.50 for Livingston. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Dundee FC vs Livingston Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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