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Aberdeen vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group · Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Aberdeen

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dundee Utd

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.0%0-25.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.5%1-112.0%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.6%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 45.0% 2.22 -3.6%

Draw 26.3% 29.0% 3.45 -5.6%

Away win 30.3% 32.8% 3.05 -7.6%

Over 2.5 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Over 3.5 29.9% 33.3% 3.00 -6.2%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aberdeen1.5

Dundee Utd1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ABERDEEN · PPG 1.35

DUNDEE UTD · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.35) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Aberdeen (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -3.6%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.6%

Dundee Utd (A) 30.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aberdeen face Dundee Utd in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aberdeen a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Dundee Utd 30%, so Aberdeen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aberdeen and 1.3 for Dundee Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aberdeen are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 0.94 for Dundee Utd. This match finished 2-0.

Aberdeen vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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