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Nyva Ternopil vs Mariupol Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:30

Nyva Ternopil

PPG 1.23 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Mariupol

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.0%0-114.1%0-25.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.4%1-113.0%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.0%2-16.0%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.5%3-11.8%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% — — —

Draw 35.7% — — —

Away win 26.3% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 8.8% — — —

BTTS 45.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.0%

#2 1–0 17.4%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 14.1%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nyva Ternopil0.9

Mariupol0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 8.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NYVA TERNOPIL · PPG 1.23

MARIUPOL · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.23) > Away POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Nyva Ternopil (H) 38.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mariupol (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nyva Ternopil face Mariupol in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nyva Ternopil a 38% chance, the draw 36% and Mariupol 26%, so Nyva Ternopil are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Nyva Ternopil and 0.7 for Mariupol (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nyva Ternopil are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 0.77 for Mariupol. This match finished 0-3.

Nyva Ternopil vs Mariupol Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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