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Basel B vs Kriens Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:30

Basel B

PPG 1.80 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kriens

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.2%0-24.0%0-33.3%0-4+3.7%1 1-02.4%1-16.0%1-27.4%1-36.2%1-4+7.0%2 2-02.2%2-15.5%2-26.9%2-35.7%2-4+6.5%3 3-01.4%3-13.4%3-24.3%3-33.6%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.4%4+-23.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.5% 23.1% 4.33 +45.1%

Draw 23.7% 22.7% 4.40 +2.6%

Away win 42.8% 64.5% 1.55 -33.7%

Over 2.5 69.8% 76.9% 1.30 -9.3%

Over 3.5 63.3% 56.5% 1.77 +12.0%

BTTS 66.7% 74.1% 1.35 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob66.7%

A 43% / xG 1.9-2.5 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.4%

#2 2–2 6.9%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 1–3 6.2%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Basel B1.9

Kriens2.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BASEL B · PPG 1.80

KRIENS · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Basel B (H) 33.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +45.1%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +2.6%

Kriens (A) 42.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -33.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Basel B face Kriens in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Basel B a 34% chance, the draw 24% and Kriens 43%, so Kriens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Basel B and 2.5 for Kriens (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Basel B are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.00 for Kriens. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Basel B vs Kriens Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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