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Karvan vs Shamakhi Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Karvan

PPG 0.36 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Shamakhi

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-119.5%0-212.6%0-35.4%0-4+2.3%1 1-09.0%1-111.7%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-02.7%2-13.5%2-22.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.5%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.2% 25.6% 3.90 -32.9%

Draw 29.3% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Away win 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 2.5 29.3% 45.5% 2.20 -35.5%

Over 3.5 12.3% 25.0% 4.00 -50.8%

BTTS 32.6% 52.6% 1.90 -38.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob32.6%

A 54% / xG 0.6-1.3 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.5%

#2 0–0 15.2%

#3 0–2 12.6%

#4 1–1 11.7%

#5 1–0✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karvan0.6

Shamakhi1.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.3% · O3.5 PROB 12.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KARVAN · PPG 0.36

SHAMAKHI · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs Home POOR (0.36)

Win probability 1X2

Karvan (H) 17.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -32.9%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Shamakhi (A) 53.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karvan face Shamakhi in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karvan a 17% chance, the draw 29% and Shamakhi 54%, so Shamakhi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Karvan and 1.3 for Shamakhi (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karvan are averaging 0.36 points per game versus 1.38 for Shamakhi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Karvan vs Shamakhi Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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