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Halifax Town vs Southend Utd Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Halifax Town

PPG 1.68 · HOME

2 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Southend Utd

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-110.2%0-27.5%0-33.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.4%1-112.3%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.0%2-17.4%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.0%3-12.9%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 29.0% 3.45 +7.3%

Draw 25.8% 30.3% 3.30 -14.9%

Away win 43.1% 51.3% 1.95 -16.0%

Over 2.5 49.6% 54.6% 1.83 -9.2%

Over 3.5 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -14.1%

BTTS 53.6% 59.9% 1.67 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-6

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.6%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 10.2%

#3 1–2 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Halifax Town1.2

Southend Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HALIFAX TOWN · PPG 1.68

SOUTHEND UTD · PPG 1.52

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.68), Away GOOD (1.52)

Win probability 1X2

Halifax Town (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +7.3%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.9%

Southend Utd (A) 43.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Halifax Town face Southend Utd in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Halifax Town a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Southend Utd 43%, so Southend Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Halifax Town and 1.5 for Southend Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Halifax Town are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.52 for Southend Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 2-6.

Halifax Town vs Southend Utd Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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