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Luzern B vs Bruhl Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

Luzern B

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Bruhl

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+24.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-11.3%0-22.0%0-32.2%0-4+3.9%1 1-00.9%1-12.9%1-24.7%1-35.1%1-4+9.1%2 2-01.1%2-13.4%2-25.5%2-35.9%2-4+10.6%3 3-00.8%3-12.6%3-24.2%3-34.6%3-4+8.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.7%4+-24.3%4+-34.6%4+-4+8.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.2% 26.3% 3.80 +6.6%

Draw 20.3% 22.7% 4.40 -6.4%

Away win 50.5% 61.0% 1.64 -17.2%

Over 2.5 78.8% 84.7% 1.18 -7.0%

Over 3.5 80.3% 64.5% 1.55 +24.5%

BTTS 66.7% 80.0% 1.25 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob66.7%

A 50% / xG 2.3-3.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 5.9%

#2 2–2✓ 5.5%

#3 1–3 5.1%

#4 2–4 4.7%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luzern B2.3

Bruhl3.2

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 80.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LUZERN B · PPG 1.60

BRUHL · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Luzern B (H) 29.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.6%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -6.4%

Bruhl (A) 50.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luzern B face Bruhl in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luzern B a 29% chance, the draw 20% and Bruhl 51%, so Bruhl are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Luzern B and 3.2 for Bruhl (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luzern B are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.73 for Bruhl. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Luzern B vs Bruhl Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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