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Atalanta U20 vs Monza U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 37 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

Atalanta U20

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Monza U20

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.5%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-112.8%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.6%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 25.6% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 19.4% — — —

BTTS 51.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.5%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0✓ 14.0%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atalanta U201.3

Monza U200.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATALANTA U20 · PPG 1.67

MONZA U20 · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Atalanta U20 (H) 46.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Monza U20 (A) 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atalanta U20 face Monza U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atalanta U20 a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Monza U20 26%, so Atalanta U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atalanta U20 and 0.9 for Monza U20 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atalanta U20 are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Monza U20. This match finished 1-0.

Atalanta U20 vs Monza U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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