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Qabala vs Qarabag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

Qabala

PPG 0.79 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Qarabag

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-113.8%0-213.6%0-38.9%0-4+6.8%1 1-04.9%1-19.5%1-29.4%1-36.1%1-4+4.7%2 2-01.7%2-13.3%2-23.2%2-32.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.0% 13.8% 7.25 -3.5%

Draw 26.4% 24.4% 4.10 +4.9%

Away win 60.5% 71.4% 1.40 -15.3%

Over 2.5 52.8% 57.8% 1.73 -8.7%

Over 3.5 27.5% 36.4% 2.75 -14.6%

BTTS 50.8% 54.1% 1.85 -6.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob50.8%

A 60% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.6%

#2 0–1 13.8%

#3 1–1✓ 9.5%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–3 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qabala0.7

Qarabag2.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

QABALA · PPG 0.79

QARABAG · PPG 2.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Qabala (H) 13.0%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV -3.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +4.9%

Qarabag (A) 60.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qabala face Qarabag in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qabala a 13% chance, the draw 26% and Qarabag 61%, so Qarabag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Qabala and 2.0 for Qarabag (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qabala are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 2.07 for Qarabag. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Qabala vs Qarabag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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