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Cagliari vs Udinese Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

Cagliari

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Udinese

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-111.4%0-26.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.1%1-113.2%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.5%2-17.6%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.0%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 38.8% 2.58 -6.3%

Draw 28.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.2%

Away win 35.5% 35.0% 2.86 +1.5%

Over 2.5 46.5% 45.5% 2.20 +2.3%

Over 3.5 20.9% 25.0% 4.00 -9.8%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 11.4%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cagliari1.2

Udinese1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CAGLIARI · PPG 1.29

UDINESE · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.41)

Win probability 1X2

Cagliari (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -6.3%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.2%

Udinese (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cagliari face Udinese in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cagliari a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Udinese 36%, so Cagliari are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cagliari and 1.2 for Udinese (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cagliari are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.41 for Udinese. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Cagliari vs Udinese Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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