Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad

Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Sarpsborg 08

PPG 0.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fredrikstad

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.7%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-112.9%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.5%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 28.4% — — —

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 22.9% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1✓ 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarpsborg 081.3

Fredrikstad1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SARPSBORG 08 · PPG 0.67

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Sarpsborg 08 (H) 43.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fredrikstad (A) 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarpsborg 08 face Fredrikstad in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarpsborg 08 a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Fredrikstad 28%, so Sarpsborg 08 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.1 for Fredrikstad (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarpsborg 08 are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.75 for Fredrikstad. This match finished 2-1.

Sarpsborg 08 vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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