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Persis Solo vs Persebaya S. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Persis Solo

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Persebaya S.

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-110.2%0-28.8%0-35.1%0-4+3.2%1 1-06.5%1-111.2%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.6%2-16.2%2-25.3%2-33.1%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.3%3-12.3%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 48.8% 2.05 -26.1%

Draw 27.0% 29.0% 3.45 -4.1%

Away win 45.4% 32.3% 3.10 +40.7%

Over 2.5 53.1% 56.5% 1.77 -6.0%

Over 3.5 31.4% 33.9% 2.95 -7.4%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 0–0✓ 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persis Solo1.1

Persebaya S.1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIS SOLO · PPG 1.07

PERSEBAYA S. · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.07) vs Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Persis Solo (H) 27.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -26.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.1%

Persebaya S. (A) 45.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +40.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persis Solo face Persebaya S. in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persis Solo a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Persebaya S. 45%, so Persebaya S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Persis Solo and 1.7 for Persebaya S. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persis Solo are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.53 for Persebaya S.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Persis Solo vs Persebaya S. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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