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Freiburg W vs Wolfsburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Freiburg W

PPG 1.92 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wolfsburg W

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.4%0-24.4%0-33.7%0-4+4.5%1 1-02.3%1-16.0%1-27.7%1-36.6%1-4+7.8%2 2-02.0%2-15.2%2-26.7%2-35.8%2-4+6.9%3 3-01.2%3-13.1%3-23.9%3-33.4%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.0%4+-22.6%4+-32.2%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 21.1% 4.75 +12.4%

Draw 23.2% 23.8% 4.20 -1.5%

Away win 51.4% 65.4% 1.53 -21.4%

Over 2.5 69.8% 71.4% 1.40 -2.3%

Over 3.5 62.8% 50.0% 2.00 +25.6%

BTTS 64.2% 69.0% 1.45 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob64.2%

A 51% / xG 1.8-2.6 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.7%

#2 1–1 6.0%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Freiburg W1.8

Wolfsburg W2.6

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FREIBURG W · PPG 1.92

WOLFSBURG W · PPG 2.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.92), Away EXCELLENT (2.17)

Win probability 1X2

Freiburg W (H) 25.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +12.4%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.5%

Wolfsburg W (A) 51.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Freiburg W face Wolfsburg W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freiburg W a 25% chance, the draw 23% and Wolfsburg W 51%, so Wolfsburg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Freiburg W and 2.6 for Wolfsburg W (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freiburg W are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 2.17 for Wolfsburg W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.6%. This match finished 2-4.

Freiburg W vs Wolfsburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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