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Homburg vs Bayern Alzenau Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Homburg

PPG 1.63 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bayern Alzenau

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.8%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.3%1-17.2%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.5%2-19.3%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-18.0%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-19.6%4+-24.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 19.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 47.7% — — —

BTTS 57.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.6%

H 60% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–1 7.2%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Homburg2.6

Bayern Alzenau1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HOMBURG · PPG 1.63

BAYERN ALZENAU · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=59.5%

Win probability 1X2

Homburg (H) 59.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bayern Alzenau (A) 19.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Homburg face Bayern Alzenau in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Homburg a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Bayern Alzenau 19%, so Homburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Homburg and 1.0 for Bayern Alzenau (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Homburg are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.63 for Bayern Alzenau. This match finished 5-2.

Homburg vs Bayern Alzenau Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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