Today / Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest / FSV Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz B

FSV Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

FSV Frankfurt

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FSV Mainz B

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.2%0-24.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.8%1-110.4%1-27.9%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.2%3-14.9%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.0%4+-22.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 34.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 39.7% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FSV Frankfurt1.7

FSV Mainz B1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FSV FRANKFURT · PPG 1.25

FSV MAINZ B · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

FSV Frankfurt (H) 40.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FSV Mainz B (A) 34.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FSV Frankfurt face FSV Mainz B in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FSV Frankfurt a 41% chance, the draw 25% and FSV Mainz B 34%, so FSV Frankfurt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FSV Frankfurt and 1.5 for FSV Mainz B (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FSV Frankfurt are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.44 for FSV Mainz B. This match finished 1-1.

FSV Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions