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BFC Preussen vs Meuselwitz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

BFC Preussen

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Meuselwitz

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.2%0-23.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.4%1-19.9%1-26.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.5%3-16.0%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.5%4+-23.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 40.9% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFC Preussen1.9

Meuselwitz1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BFC PREUSSEN · PPG 1.56

MEUSELWITZ · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

BFC Preussen (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Meuselwitz (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BFC Preussen face Meuselwitz in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFC Preussen a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Meuselwitz 25%, so BFC Preussen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for BFC Preussen and 1.3 for Meuselwitz (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFC Preussen are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.87 for Meuselwitz. This match finished 2-1.

BFC Preussen vs Meuselwitz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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