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AC Horsens vs Hillerod Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Promotion Group - 29 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

AC Horsens

PPG 1.62 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hillerod

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-110.2%0-25.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.5%1-113.1%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-18.4%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 47.2% 2.12 -7.8%

Draw 29.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.9%

Away win 27.3% 30.3% 3.30 -5.9%

Over 2.5 46.5% 46.5% 2.15 -0.0%

Over 3.5 20.6% 25.3% 3.95 -11.2%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Horsens1.3

Hillerod1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AC HORSENS · PPG 1.62

HILLEROD · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.62), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

AC Horsens (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -7.8%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.9%

Hillerod (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Horsens face Hillerod in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Horsens a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Hillerod 27%, so AC Horsens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for AC Horsens and 1.0 for Hillerod (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Horsens are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.50 for Hillerod. This match finished 4-0.

AC Horsens vs Hillerod Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - 1. Division Predictions