Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Aarhus Fremad vs HB Koge

Aarhus Fremad vs HB Koge Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 29 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Aarhus Fremad

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

HB Koge

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.0%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.8%1-19.9%1-25.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.9%3-16.6%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.2%4+-22.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 53.2% 1.88 -7.3%

Draw 25.6% 30.8% 3.25 -10.1%

Away win 25.1% 25.0% 4.00 +0.2%

Over 2.5 60.2% 58.8% 1.70 +2.3%

Over 3.5 37.9% 38.2% 2.62 -0.7%

BTTS 58.8% 64.5% 1.55 -8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aarhus Fremad2.0

HB Koge1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AARHUS FREMAD · PPG 1.57

HB KOGE · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Aarhus Fremad (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -7.3%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.1%

HB Koge (A) 25.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarhus Fremad face HB Koge in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarhus Fremad a 49% chance, the draw 26% and HB Koge 25%, so Aarhus Fremad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Aarhus Fremad and 1.1 for HB Koge (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarhus Fremad are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.92 for HB Koge. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Aarhus Fremad vs HB Koge Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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