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Chengdu vs Henan SL Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Chengdu

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Henan SL

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-13.8%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.3%1-18.4%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.8%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-16.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 66.2% 1.51 -8.2%

Draw 24.4% 24.4% 4.10 +0.0%

Away win 14.9% 18.5% 5.40 -11.7%

Over 2.5 59.3% 61.7% 1.62 -3.9%

Over 3.5 32.8% 39.2% 2.55 -16.4%

BTTS 51.0% 59.9% 1.67 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.0%

H 61% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 3–0✓ 10.0%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chengdu2.2

Henan SL0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENGDU · PPG 3.00

HENAN SL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=60.8%

Win probability 1X2

Chengdu (H) 60.8%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -8.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.0%

Henan SL (A) 14.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chengdu face Henan SL in China - Super League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chengdu a 61% chance, the draw 24% and Henan SL 15%, so Chengdu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Chengdu and 0.7 for Henan SL (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chengdu are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Henan SL. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Chengdu vs Henan SL Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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