Ceuta vs Castellon Prediction & Tips

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Spain - Segunda División Regular Season - 39 Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube· Ceuta Saturday, May 9, 2026 12:00

Ceuta PPG 2.00

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Castellon PPG 1.32

Home· +70.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.3%

Odds: 4.70 EV: +70.6%

Draw 27.1%

Odds: 4.00 EV: +5.0%

Away 36.6%

Odds: 1.64 EV: -40.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.8% Odds: 1.55 -18.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% Odds: 2.38 -19.9%

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.55 -15.4%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Ceuta

1.25

Castellon

1.42

Model SuggestionBTTS -15.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -15.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+70.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 64% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.32)