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Ceuta vs Castellon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 39 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Ceuta

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Castellon

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-19.8%0-27.0%0-33.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.6%1-112.3%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.4%2-17.7%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 21.3% 4.70 +70.6%

Draw 27.1% 25.0% 4.00 +5.0%

Away win 36.6% 61.0% 1.64 -40.0%

Over 2.5 52.8% 64.5% 1.55 -18.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 42.0% 2.38 -19.9%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.9%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceuta1.3

Castellon1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CEUTA · PPG 2.00

CASTELLON · PPG 1.32

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.32)

Win probability 1X2

Ceuta (H) 36.3%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +70.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +5.0%

Castellon (A) 36.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -40.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceuta face Castellon in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceuta a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Castellon 37%, so Castellon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ceuta and 1.4 for Castellon (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceuta are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.32 for Castellon. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +70.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Ceuta vs Castellon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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