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S. Shenhua vs Chongqing T. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:35

S. Shenhua

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chongqing T.

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.2%0-25.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.0%1-112.7%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.7%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-14.0%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 66.7% 1.50 -34.9%

Draw 27.6% 24.4% 4.10 +7.9%

Away win 29.0% 17.9% 5.60 +37.4%

Over 2.5 46.5% 59.9% 1.67 -22.4%

Over 3.5 24.8% 37.0% 2.70 -19.8%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Shenhua1.4

Chongqing T.1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.8%

Form & verdict PPG

S. SHENHUA · PPG 2.40

CHONGQING T. · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.40) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

S. Shenhua (H) 43.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -34.9%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +7.9%

Chongqing T. (A) 29.0%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +37.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Shenhua face Chongqing T. in China - Super League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Shenhua a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Chongqing T. 29%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for S. Shenhua and 1.2 for Chongqing T. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Shenhua are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.75 for Chongqing T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.4%. This match finished 2-2.

S. Shenhua vs Chongqing T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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