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M. Kharkiv vs Podillya K. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:30

M. Kharkiv

PPG 1.08 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Podillya K.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-111.6%0-24.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-113.0%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.6%2-17.2%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.6%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% — — —

Draw 31.3% — — —

Away win 25.6% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 12.0% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.5%

#2 1–0 17.3%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Kharkiv1.1

Podillya K.0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

M. KHARKIV · PPG 1.08

PODILLYA K. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

M. Kharkiv (H) 43.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Podillya K. (A) 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Kharkiv face Podillya K. in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Kharkiv a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Podillya K. 26%, so M. Kharkiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for M. Kharkiv and 0.8 for Podillya K. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Kharkiv are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.00 for Podillya K.. This match finished 3-0.

M. Kharkiv vs Podillya K. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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