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Sesvete vs C. Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:15

Sesvete

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

C. Zmijavci

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 88.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+62.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-11.4%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.6%1-14.1%1-20.7%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.5%2-15.8%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.7%3-15.5%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-022.4%4+-17.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 88.0% 54.1% 1.85 +62.8%

Draw 9.3% 34.5% 2.90 -73.0%

Away win 2.7% 23.8% 4.20 -88.7%

Over 2.5 62.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.7% — — —

BTTS 27.9% 44.4% 2.25 -37.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob27.9%

H 88% / xG 2.8-0.4 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.5%

#2 3–0 15.7%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 4–0 11.2%

#5 5–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sesvete2.8

C. Zmijavci0.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SESVETE · PPG 2.00

C. ZMIJAVCI · PPG 0.85

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.85) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sesvete (H) 88.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +62.8%

Draw 9.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -73.0%

C. Zmijavci (A) 2.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -88.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sesvete face C. Zmijavci in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sesvete a 88% chance, the draw 9% and C. Zmijavci 3%, so Sesvete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Sesvete and 0.4 for C. Zmijavci (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sesvete are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.85 for C. Zmijavci. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +62.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Sesvete vs C. Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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