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Hegelmann L. vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:15

Hegelmann L.

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Siauliai

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-110.8%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.1%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-18.0%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.7%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% — — —

Draw 29.4% — — —

Away win 26.3% — — —

Over 2.5 45.8% — — —

Over 3.5 15.7% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.1%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–1 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann L.1.2

Siauliai0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN L. · PPG 1.43

SIAULIAI · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann L. (H) 44.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Siauliai (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann L. face Siauliai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann L. a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Siauliai 26%, so Hegelmann L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hegelmann L. and 0.9 for Siauliai (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann L. are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.67 for Siauliai. This match finished 1-1.

Hegelmann L. vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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