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Cibalia vs Sesvete Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:15

Cibalia

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Sesvete

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-113.3%0-26.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.6%1-113.5%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.4%2-16.8%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.5%3-12.3%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 46.5% 2.15 -19.6%

Draw 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

Away win 30.3% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

Over 2.5 35.1% 47.6% 2.10 -26.3%

Over 3.5 13.2% 26.0% 3.84 -29.6%

BTTS 48.2% 57.1% 1.75 -15.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 0–1 13.3%

#5 2–0✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cibalia1.0

Sesvete0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CIBALIA · PPG 2.14

SESVETE · PPG 1.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.14), Away GOOD (1.85)

Win probability 1X2

Cibalia (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -19.6%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.1%

Sesvete (A) 30.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cibalia face Sesvete in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cibalia a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Sesvete 30%, so Cibalia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Cibalia and 0.9 for Sesvete (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cibalia are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.85 for Sesvete. This match finished 2-0.

Cibalia vs Sesvete Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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